Unfounded Confidence

*Note: The following text is the output of transcribing from an audio recording. Although the transcription is largely accurate, in some cases it is incomplete or inaccurate due to inaudible passages or transcription errors.

Bill Berthel: Welcome to the Get Emergent podcast. This is the space where we discuss leadership team and organizational topics and better practices. We like to provide concepts and ideas that you can turn into pragmatic experiments to help you develop your higher potential in your work and in your leadership. I’m Bill Berthel.

Ralph Simone: And I’m Ralph Simone.

And today, Bill, I love this topic that we’re going to dive into unfounded confidence.

Bill Berthel: Yeah.

Ralph Simone: I think that you specifically picked it for me, but I think this idea, though, of having too much confidence in how it can create disconnection. So what do we actually mean when we talk about unfounded confidence?

Bill Berthel: I think sometimes it can be too much. I think sometimes it can actually be quite effective. Right. This idea of unfounded confidence is it’s, a cognitive bias that in 1999 was dubbed the Dunning Kruger effect. So, this is a model in psychology that suggests that very early on, we have some level of ignorance about something, but a high level of confidence. And then as we gain knowledge, we start to uncover what we don’t know, and our confidence dips from there. But we tend to start learning, and we start to build a founded confidence later through that learning. But this unfounded confidence is that early stage where we’re a little ignorant about the topic. Maybe we don’t know anything, but we demonstrate a high level of confidence in it. And I think this is a leadership trait that can work and that, sometimes backfires on us.

Ralph Simone: So I’m curious, how does it work and what causes it to backfire? I mean, I’m curious how it can work.

Bill Berthel: So I think I’ve observed in some leaders and some people that where it works, it’s because they couple this unfounded confidence with charisma, with charm, with, I think, what’s likability?

Ralph Simone: Ah.

Bill Berthel: those are my terms. That charisma, that charm, I think if they’re charming, I think it has to be authentic. You know, it’s a likable quality, and then that confidence is a strength.

Ralph Simone: So it doesn’t come off as arrogance when it’s coupled with that charisma.

Bill Berthel: Exactly. Right. So we’re talking charisma, charm, likability are very subjective. Right. So I think it’s probably different for different relationships, different people. But, yes, I think the flip side, it can come across as arrogance or what, is that. That kind of cocky attitude, maybe? Right. Or that it distances us? it creates more questioning than influence and acceptance.

Ralph Simone: Got it.

So how does this connect to a term that I’ve used, I’ve probably shared with people. And I think I read it in a lot of self development material. Fake it till you make it.

Bill Berthel: Yeah.

Ralph Simone: Is that linked to this concept?

Bill Berthel: Oh, I think so. I think so. You know, think about the work in the book presence by Amy Cuddy. Right. She reframes “fake it till you make it” to “fake it till you become it.” And I think that is the effect we’re talking about, is there is some faking it in the early stages because we don’t have the knowledge, skills and ability in that specific topic. Maybe a little bit, maybe a tiny bit of experience. But you, you know, genuine unfounded confidence is like a high level of ignorance. At the beginning. We are faking it to some extent. I think when we’re faking it with that influential charisma, charm, and likeability, we get permission to fake it as we learn.

Ralph Simone: So you got me thinking a lot about this. So then maybe a more palatable way of describing that is act as if. Act as if. Which gives us the confidence. But how do you reconcile this with some of the other things that Brene Brown and others have talked about, the importance of vulnerability in leadership?

Bill Berthel: Yeah, I think if you’re a, one trick pony and all you have is confidence, I think you’re going to be received as arrogant the second time, if not the first, even if you’re charming. Yeah. So I think it’s a both and model of admitting our fallibility. Even there’s room in our unfounded confidence to share that we don’t know something. I don’t think those are opposed to one another. I think we can be confident in that topic and also invite other people. And it doesn’t mean you’re just taking center stage or taking the front and leaving room for no one. Let me tell you a little story. I just recently came back from Utah for a training, and, the check in, like we do in some of our trainings, they had a check in and they had a small list of criteria. They wanted everybody to check in with your name a little bit about your organization, kind of where you’re coming from geographically, because people are coming from all over the world for this. And then they asked for your superpower as the last check in piece. Right. I happen to have gone last. So I had the advantage of there about 20 people in the room of everybody going, and a gentleman well before me, his superpower, he shared this topic. He said, unfounded confidence. You know, like, oh, I want to connect with this guy. Really? Like, and he had charm, he had charisma, he was likable right away, at least for me. I think most people liked him quickly. He reminded me a lot of you, Ralph. He really did.

Ralph Simone: The unfounded confidence piece, I’m sure.

Bill Berthel: The charm and the likability as well. And actually, I approached him later and let him know that, he reminded me of you. But when it was my turn, I went backwards up the list. I said, my superpower is not following directions very well. I got everybody laughing because I’m already doing it in the opposite way. When I did approach this other gentleman who shared the unfounded confidence, he said to me, he said, I’m going to watch you through the rest of this program. He said, I really like the way you did that. You went backwards. I’m going to really watch it. I said, well, I really hope I don’t let you down. He said, oh, don’t worry about it. I’ve got your back. It’s that kind of partnering right away with his unfounded confidence. He had room for others.

Ralph Simone: Yeah.

Bill Berthel: I was watching him admit when he didn’t know, but there was still this presence of, I’ve got this. And I think what was key, what I was watching with him, was his ability to recover when he didn’t know.

Ralph Simone: So I love that distinction, Bill. I love the story. It sounded like more of a me to we confidence very much. And it’s also, I’m thinking about spin. Right. When leaders spin things too confidently or too positively, there’s often some concern, or it almost becomes the joke because it’s no longer credible. And so that is when it can become a detriment. Right. When we’re unfounded confidence about where we are, it’s not that we can’t get through this, but where we are is not very good.

Bill Berthel: Correct. And when it’s that unfounded confidence that gets in the way of our awareness and our consciousness in those interactions, I think becomes a, detriment more than a problem.

I think that’s the darker side of this idea of you can bring on a healthy dose of confidence without knowing as a leader, get people involved, get some influence and inspiration going, but a both/and. Invite invite them into it. Leave the room, leave the space for them, leave a lot of room for them.

Ralph Simone: So, one of the perspective shifts that you’ve given me on this is that you oftentimes people connect confidence with knowing and experience in having been there before. But you’re saying it could be confidence in the group, confidence in the system.

Bill Berthel: Absolutely.

Ralph Simone: And that’s very different. So how would we coach leaders or what could they do on their own to kind of observe for what might be an unhealthy dose of unfounded confidence? What types of guidance would we give?

Bill Berthel: Yeah, I think there’s a few things here, right? So the first piece is the awareness, paying attention to am I tipping into this space of what looks like arrogance? How am I being received by others? Are they engaged with me not out of compliance or because of my position? Are they freely sharing their ideas? Is there psychological safety and a pretty free flow of information or idea sharing? If there is, you haven’t tipped over to that place of turning people off, either through arrogance or too much distancing or sharing too much confidence. Right? Overdoing it or spinning, as you put it. I like that. I think second to that is have that willingness to cultivate more. I’m calling it charisma and charm. And I know that’s very subjective and I think with different people that can look like different things. I think that likability factor is important in leadership. And I know we can’t be genuinely liked by everyone, but I think the more adaptable we are, the more we meet people where they are, and the more we invite them into participation, the more likable we become. I think we have to have genuine willingness to cultivate that likability.

Ralph Simone: I like how you distinguish that. I think we’ve talked about balancing in other podcasts confidence with humility. And I think part of humility is being open that to knowing that you don’t know and that you couldn’t possibly know, but that doesn’t need to get in the way of moving forward and getting to know. And I think that’s an important distinction.

Bill Berthel: And I think that’s the piece of acting like you are a know it all is the style of confidence that won’t work very well. I think in today’s day and age of information, so rapidly increasing new technologies, new abilities, new skill sets, we’re not going to be in a position to know it all as a leader. A leader is someone who can’t know it all and can’t do it all themselves. And so I think we demonstrate that, but not at the cost of our confidence. Not at the cost of our confidence. Our confidence is creating safety and security and stability for other people that are saying, I’m following, I’m taking your lead. We give that over to a safe and secure place, to a person who is dialed in their confidence.

Ralph Simone: I’m becoming sensitized, maybe in my own language, that maybe I’ve got to be more mindful of we’ve got this as opposed to I got this of it, and because there’s a confidence in the team and in myself. But we’ve got this, and I think I’m going to pay more attention to that on an ongoing basis.

Bill Berthel: Yeah. I love it. Love it. Thanks, Ralph.

Ralph Simone: Thank you, Bill.

Bill Berthel: And thanks for listening. You can listen to a new podcast two times every month here at Get Emergent or wherever you listen to your podcasts. This is where we bring you contemporary leadership topics and ideas balanced with what we hope you find are better practices that you can apply directly to your work and your leadership. Thank you.